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3 Laws of Miracles and the Poisson distribution
ok i've to admit, i've gone crazy over this thing. Let X be the discrete random variable denoting the number of miracles that happen over a stipulated, fixed time t, over infinite trials. The probability of a miracle happening is p. As miracles are rare, n is large, n > 50 (n = times that miracles could happen in the time frame) and p < 0.01, approximate to a Poisson distribution. X ~ Po (np) approximately With approximation, P (X < x ) = [e^-(np) ][(np)^-x] / [x!] lets say probability of miracle happening is 10^-9, as in, a one in a billionth chance. assume that every day for a period of 21 years, a miracle could happen. therefore, n = 21 x 365 = 7665; np = 7.665 x 10^-6 a) what is the most likely number of miracles that will happen during any given day during this 21 years? Using recurrence formula, [P (X < x + 1)] / [P (X < x)] = lambda / (x + 1) = np /(x + 1) Mode: np/(x+1) > 1 7.665 x 10^-6 > x + 1 x < 1 Since x is an integer, x = 0 hence mode = 0 hence, most probably, there will most likely be no miracles happening for any given day in this 21 years. =( b) what is the probability of at least one miracle happening on any given day in this 21 years? P (X < 1) = 1 - P (X = 0) = 1 - [e^-(np) ][(np)^0] / [0!] = 1 - e^-(np) = 1 - 1.0000007665 = well.. u know the result....
Dispense-A-Dream '07
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Chat Point Ipod The Man Name: Tan Yongqiang Birthday: 19 Nov 19XX Profession: Student (Pharmacy) Zodiac: Scorpio Email: whyqueue@hotmail.com Favourites: Songs Likes: Having fun, friends, music, dreaming Dislikes: Being lonely and wasting time Wishlist Nuannuan Genuine friends Survive pharmacy Get a nice job with a decent salary Write at least one song Film at least one MTV
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